FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF SPORT TOURISM ARRIVALS IN SOUTHWEST BULGARIA

Preslav Mihaylov Dimitrov, Diana Tsevtanova Daleva, Milena Stoyanova

Abstract


This paper presents an application of some forecasting methods concerning sport tourism arrivals in Southwest Bulgaria: linear trend forecasting, double exponential forecasting (Holts method), triple exponential forecasting (the Holt-Winters Method), and the ARIMA method. A specially designed model for estimating the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the sport tourisms sector in the time series of the available data and in the forecast values is presented. In order to test the forecasting methods and produce forecasts up to the year 2030, a time series and past period predictions have been constructed based on statistical records since 1964. Several major problems in the application of the exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting and the needs of the sport tourism subsector of Bulgaria tourism industry are addressed. These problems include (a) finding a suitable general indicator, (b) calculating short-term and long-term forecasts, (c) comparing the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts, (d) estimating the size of the sport tourism in Southwest Bulgaria in certain terms so that the forecast(s) of the above-mentioned general indicator could be particularized especially for examined sub-sector and region. The results from the different forecasting methods and techniques are presented and conclusions are drawn regarding the reliability of the forecasts.


Keywords


sport tourism, forecasting, economic cycles

Full Text:

PDF

References


Dimitrov, P. (2010). Short-run forecasting of tourism arrivals in separate sectors of Bulgarian tourism industry. International Scientific Conference, Alternatives for Development of the Modern Tourism. The Proceedings Book, pp. 378-389.

Juglar, C. (1862). Des crises commerciales et leur retour périodique en France, en Angleterre, et aux Etats-Unis. Paris: Guillaumin. Available: http://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k1060720

Kitchin J. (1923). Cycles and trends in economic factors. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 5(1), 10-16. Retrieved June 30, 2013, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1927031

Kuzyk, B. N., & Yakovets, I. V. (2006). Civilization: Theory, history, dialogue and the future in two volumes, Volume I, Theory and History of Civilizations. Moscow: Institute for Economic Strategies.

Ministry of Economy, Energy and Tourism (now Ministry of Tourism) (2011). Surveys and analyses 2010. The foreign and the Bulgarian Tourists in Bulgaria – General observations and attitudes, Retrieved June 29, 2012 from

http://www.mi.government.bg/files/useruploads/files/turism_-_statistika_i_analizi/prouchvania_proekti/prouchvane_chujdenci_bulgarians_20092010_obshtinabljudenia.pdf

National Statistical Institute (2014a). Statistical yearbooks of the People’s Republic of Bulgaria for the period 1964-1989. Retrieved June 15 from http://www.nsi.bg;

National Statistical Institute (2014b). Statistical yearbooks of the Republic of Bulgaria for the period 1990-1999. Retrieved June 15, 2013 from http://www.nsi.bg;

Pegles, C. C. (1969). Exponential forecasting: Some new variations. Management Science, 15(5), 311-315.

Stankova, M. (2010). The tourism regions in Bulgaria - Concepts and challenges. Journal of Tourism & Hospitality Management, 16(1), 109-118.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.17349/jmc116212

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Copyright (c) 2016 Journal of Media Critiques [JMC]

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.